Report: Airlines will face shortage of new airplanes until at least 2030

Airlines waiting for new airplanes face several more years of delivery shortages, with engine availability, supplier bottlenecks and certification delays expected to constrain production until at least 2030.

That is the outlook from aviation analytics company Cirium, which released its annual fleet forecast on October 13, 2026, as the company expects manufacturers to remain unable to meet airline demand throughout the remainder of the 2020s.

“Long-term aircraft demand remains strong, but the pace of growth increasingly depends on the industry’s ability to deliver,” said Stephen Burnside, Global Head of Cirium Ascend Consultancy.

Cirium forecasts about 43,000 deliveries of new commercial passenger and cargo aircraft between 2026 and 2045, worth $3.2 trillion at 2026 prices. These jets and turboprops will allow airlines to expand their fleets and replace aging aircraft.

But the wait for replacements is already growing more expensive. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) said in June 2026 that airlines were short of more than 5,000 fuel-efficient aircraft they had expected to receive by now.

With fewer replacements available, carriers are keeping older airplanes flying longer, spending more on maintenance and paying higher lease rates. They are also missing out on the lower fuel bills newer aircraft would bring.

IATA said the order backlog exceeded 18,000 aircraft and the average fleet age had reached a record 15.2 years. It estimated that supply chain failures cost airlines at least $11 billion in 2025, with higher fuel prices adding to the burden.

IATA said engine durability issues, spare-parts shortages and limited maintenance capacity were disrupting operations as well. It has urged manufacturers to provide earlier warnings of delays and give airlines more options for obtaining approved parts and repairs.

Despite those pressures, Cirium expects the global passenger fleet to exceed 50,000 aircraft by 2045. Higher fuel costs, geopolitical disruption and trade uncertainty could alter airlines’ expansion plans, but the forecast still points to sustained demand for new airplanes, the company said.

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