Cirium: global airliner fleet to near-double by 2045, supply remains constrained

Aviation data platform Cirium released its annual global fleet forecast on October 20, 2026. According to Cirium’s research, global passenger capacity (defined as available seat kilometers, or ASK) will continue to grow at 3.7% per annum through 2045.

The global passenger fleet should nearly double (Cirium predicts an 88% increase) to slightly over 50,000 aircraft in the same period, which implies annual growth of 3.2%. The global freighter fleet will also grow, although not as much in relative terms: by 64%, to around 3,900 aircraft.

In order to fuel this capacity increase, over 43,000 passenger aircraft deliveries are expected to take place over the next 20 years, with slightly more than half (55%) being net fleet growth, and the rest being replacements of aircraft currently in service.

Cirium’s report also notes that the industry has not managed to close the 20% capacity gap that resulted from the COVID-19 disruption. The effect of that shock is expected to keep the capacity growth trend curve below pre-2019 forecasts throughout the period to 2045.

What’s more, in a context of continued strong demand, Cirium also identifies lingering supply constraints as the main issue slowing down the global fleet buildup. In fact, many operators have resorted to postponing the retirement of older aircraft, by an average of two years, in order to make up for this shortfall in capacity.

The narrowbody jet segment should grow the most, with the global fleet expected to add around 20,000 new aircraft, doubling the existing fleet from 18,302 aircraft to more than 38,000 by 2045. Widebody fleets are set to increase at a more moderate, but equally significant, rate of 76% over the same period, from 4,419 to 7,795 aircraft.

Strikingly, while Airbus is expected to keep its lead in the narrowbody market, with a 53% share to Boeing’s 38%, the reverse looks likely to be true in the widebody segment. Thanks in large part to 787 sales, the American manufacturer may take 60% of the market to Airbus’s 37%.

The report also notes the growth of Chinese aircraft maker COMAC, which is expected to take third place in the market, surpassing Brazil’s Embraer, although remaining far behind the Airbus-Boeing duopoly with just around 5% of the narrowbody market.

By 2028, the latest generations of the 737 and A320 families, the MAX and neo, are predicted to overtake their legacy predecessors in the number of aircraft in service. Cirium’s report also anticipates a new generation of narrowbody aircraft entering service around 2040.

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