Boeing sees demand for nearly 3,000 freighters as cargo traffic doubles by 2045

Air cargo traffic is expected to double by 2045, creating demand for nearly 3,000 new and converted freighters as operators expand their fleets and replace older aircraft, according to Boeing’s latest forecast.

Boeing released its 2026 World Air Cargo Forecast on October 28, 2026, at The International Air Cargo Association’s Air Cargo Forum in Miami. The manufacturer expects the global freighter fleet to grow from 2,395 aircraft in 2025 to 4,010 by 2045, an increase of 67%.

Boeing forecasts demand for 2,930 freighter deliveries over those two decades. About 55% would support growth, while the remaining 45% would replace retiring aircraft, the company said. Converted passenger jets are expected to account for roughly two-thirds of deliveries, with newly built freighters making up the rest.

The market currently includes converted narrowbody aircraft such as the Boeing 737-800 and Airbus A321, along with larger Boeing 767 and Airbus A330 conversions. New-build options include the Boeing 777F and the upcoming Boeing 777-8F and Airbus A350F.

The forecast points to growth in online shopping, shifting manufacturing locations and shipments of high-value technology, including artificial intelligence hardware, as sources of demand in the next two decades.

Boeing cited IATA data showing that more than 70% of AI-related goods were transported by air in 2025. Such shipments add to a market that has traditionally relied on moving perishable products, expensive equipment and other goods that need to reach customers quickly.

Global air cargo traffic reached a record high in 2025, growing nearly 5% from the previous year despite trade disputes and geopolitical disruption, Boeing said. Over the next two decades, the manufacturer expects traffic to increase by an average of 3.5% annually.

“Air cargo’s adaptability and speed are strategic advantages enabling reliable transport, dynamic rerouting and critical support for evolving supply chains,” said Darren Hulst, Boeing Vice President of Commercial Marketing.

“As global trade patterns change and demand for time-sensitive, high-value goods grows,” he added, “dedicated freighters will remain essential to global commerce.”

Routes serving Asia are expected to lead growth and account for approximately 60% of the global air cargo market. Boeing said carriers are adjusting their networks as production moves between countries and disruptions force shipments onto different routes.

Dedicated freighters are expected to continue carrying more than half of global air cargo traffic. Historically, they have transported approximately 55%, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers, with passenger aircraft carrying the remainder in their belly holds.

Express operators are also expected to gain a larger share of the business. Boeing forecasts that companies offering time-definite and express deliveries will carry nearly 25% of global air cargo traffic by 2045.

The forecast follows Airbus’s latest cargo outlook, released earlier in October 2026, which identified North America as the largest source of freighter aircraft demand over the next 20 years.

Boeing estimates that goods shipped by air represent less than 1% of global trade by volume but roughly one-third of its value.

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