Sharan Kaur: Why Canada’s $1-billion Saudi partnership is no longer a safe bet

Sharan Kaur examines Canada’s exposure to Saudi Arabia’s shifting risk profile as investment and diplomacy collide with a regional war. The piece centers on a $1-billion deal framework signed during a high-profile visit by Canada’s prime minister to Jeddah, framed as a bet that Saudi Arabia could be a safe place for Canadian money.

The article outlines a sequence of Houthi attacks on Saudi airports and infrastructure starting in October, highlighting how the security situation has deteriorated and how Global Affairs Canada responded with travel advisories for major Riyadh and Dammam hubs. It notes that these events challenge the premise of Saudi Arabia as a stable partner for Canadian interests.

Kaur discusses the broader economic and strategic context, noting oil-market disruptions, reduced export activity, and rising military spending in Saudi Arabia. The narrative ties these developments to IMF projections and Vision 2030, suggesting that the kingdom’s security guarantees and economic optimism are under growing strain.

The analysis situates Canada’s stake within a larger shift in regional security: Gulf states increasingly pursuing autonomous pacts and defense arrangements, rather than relying on U.S. protection. It cites a Mecca treaty and statements of readiness from other regional players as indicators that the traditional security framework is evolving.

The author argues that Canada should leverage multilateral avenues, such as the UN process in Yemen and enforcement of arms embargoes, while signaling that protracted conflict in the Gulf has tangible costs for Canadian interests. The piece concludes by weighing whether Saudi Arabia will emerge as a mediator or a combatant, and what that means for Canada’s foreign-policy calculus.