Boeing Forecasts China's Civil Aviation Fleet to Double Over Next 20 Years, Requiring 9,240 New Aircraft

Boeing released its 2026 China Commercial Market Outlook on November 3, forecasting that China's civil aviation fleet will more than double over the next 20 years, requiring 9,240 new aircraft. About 42% of these aircraft are expected to replace older models.

The forecast envisions China’s air passenger traffic growing at 5% annually, with the country’s air travel market becoming the largest in the world by 2045.

By aircraft type, demand for single-aisle aircraft is projected to exceed 7,200 units, making up about 78% of total deliveries. Demand for widebody aircraft is expected to exceed 1,400 units, and demand for new-build and converted freighters reaches 560.

The outlook also anticipates a need for 425,000 new pilots, maintenance personnel, and cabin crew over the next 20 years to support the expanding fleet.

China currently operates nearly 4,500 civil aircraft, according to the forecast, making it the world’s second-largest civil aviation fleet.